Bob Janjuah says take risk off immediately. He says that he expects to make 300 S&P points while risking only 30 points for a 10x risk/reward ratio at this juncture. Janjuah is the uber-bearish Nomura strategist who managed to call this recent risk on phase, which indicates that he is not one of those broken clock perma-bears that are only right when the market moves in their direction.
Just in case something genuinely new and unusual is happening – we note that the risk on phase has, time wise, extended for a few more days than we had originally forecast – and in the interests of prudence, my stop loss on the risk off call effective immediately is a consecutive weekly close on the S&P500 at or above 1450. As the Global Macro Strategy team is looking for Mr Bernanke to disappoint markets at Jackson Hole next week, and also because we are confident that markets will soon discover that neither the ECB nor Eurozone politicians will actually be able to deliver on their ‘promises’, we are hopeful that our stop losses will not be triggered. For now we are happy to risk 30 S&P points against us, in order to potentially pick up 300 S&P points in our favour.